Treat any self-reported win rate as marketing copy until you know three things about it: what counts as a win, how many trades it covers, and whether losing calls were deleted.
A few mechanics that produce a spectacular number honestly-looking:
- A close first target. "TP1 hit ✅" means nothing until you know TP1 sat 0.3% from entry. Channels quoting their own hit rate pick the ladder that flatters it.
- Unfilled entries. Limit entries placed far from price never become trades — they cost nothing and count against nothing. In our replays, about 37% of published signals never filled at all.
- Deleted losers. A channel that removes bad calls has a perfect record by construction, and you cannot check it retroactively — the evidence is gone.
For comparison, when every channel is asked the same question — did price move 2% in the called direction before the stop — the answer across our whole dataset is roughly 63% of resolved signals. Any unverified claim far above that deserves the three questions above before your money does anything.
And note: even a real hit rate is not profitability. It says nothing about the size of the losses.